Paris Agreement target of 1.5C of global warming ‘will be gone in a few years’ without action, agency says
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The world is on course for a “catastrophic” temperature rise of more than 3C above pre-industrial levels, or twice a goal set by the Paris Agreement, according to a UN report that stepped up warnings that time was running out to address climate change. The latest research by the UN Environment Programme found the world’s ability to remain within the target of 1.5C of global warming “will be gone within a few years” without rapid action. The conclusions are based on the so-called emissions gap, or the difference between the level of the greenhouse gases humans are adding to the atmosphere compared with what scientists say the levels must be to curb the heating of the planet. Already, the long-term average temperature rise was put at 1.1C in a 2021 landmark report signed off by almost 200 countries. While it was still “technically possible to meet” the Paris Agreement’s 1.5C target, this would require a huge effort from the G20 countries responsible for almost 80 per cent of global emissions, the UN report said. “Climate crunch time is here. We need global mobilisation on a scale and pace never seen before — starting right now, before the next round of climate pledges — or the 1.5C goal will soon be dead and well below 2C will take its place in the intensive care unit,” said Inger Andersen, UNEP executive director. If governments fully implemented their existing climate plans the temperature rise could be limited to 2.6C, UNEP said. But continuing with current policies would lead to 3.1C of warming, the research found. This is slightly worse, at 0.1C higher than its emissions gap report a year ago. UN secretary-general António Guterres said the report was clear that “we are teetering on a planetary tight rope”. “We’re playing with fire, but there can be no more playing for time. We’re out of time,” he added. Greenhouse gas emissions rose to a record 57.1bn tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2023, despite global pledges to cut emissions. But nations must collectively slash emissions by 42 per cent by 2030 and by 57 per cent by 2035 from 2019 levels, to keep within the 1.5C threshold, the report found. If the temperature rise reaches 2C, scientists have predicted devastating impacts for countries and biodiversity, including reduced crop yields, while more than a third of the world’s population will be exposed to extreme heat..
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