Speaker: Dr Charlie Hall
Topic: How much oil remains for the world to produce? Comparing assessment methods, and separating fact from fiction
Time: Oct 26, 2022 13:30 Eastern Time (US and Canada)
Summary:
This paper assesses how much oil remains to be produced, and whether this poses a significant constraint to global development. We describe the different categories of oil and related liquid fuels and show that public-domain by-country and global proved (1P) oil reserves data, such as from the EIA or BP Statistical Review, are very misleading and should not be used. Better data are oil consultancy proved-plus-probable (2P) reserves. Our forecasts differ sharply from those of the EIA, but our resource-limited production maxima roughly match the mainly demand-driven maxima envisaged in the IEA’s 2021 ‘Stated Policies’ scenario. Finally, in agreement with others, our forecasts indicate that the IPCC’s ‘high-CO2’ scenarios appear infeasible by assuming unrealistically high rates of oil production, but also indicate that considerable oil must be left in the ground if climate change targets are to be met. As the world seeks to move towards sustainability, these perspectives on the future availability of oil are important to take into account.
Bio:
Charles A.S. Hall received his Ph.D. in Systems Ecology under Howard Odum at UNC in 1970. He was professor at Cornell University, Univ. Montana and SUNY College of Environmental Science and Forestry. He is now very active as Professor Emeritus in Western Montana. He is author or editor of 14 books and 300 scholarly articles and has been awarded the Hubbert-Simmons Prize for Energy Education and the Lifetime Achievement Award from the International Society of BioPhysical Economics. He is best known for his development of the concept of EROI, or energy return on investment, and a new field, BioPhysical Economics.
Resources:
Syad_London Sunday Times Editorial Page 8 (1)
CACOR Zoom on YouTube, the presentation slides and the chat record.
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