Eye on the Storm Extraordinarily warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are helping to fuel an unusually active hurricane season.
October 2024 was Earth’s second-hottest October on record, according to an analysis of global data going back to 1850, NASA and NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information reported November 13. The month fell just 0.05 degree Celsius (0.09°F) below the record set in October 2023. Both October 2023 and October 2024 came in well above all preceding Octobers, and the past 11 Octobers have all been warmer than any others on record.
As opposed to being focused in one region or another, the record heat was unusually widespread. About 12.2% of the world’s surface experienced record heat, beating the previous October record extent set in 2015 of 8.4%.
NASA placed October at 1.55 degrees Celsius (2.79°F) above the 1880-1899 period, its best estimate for when preindustrial temperatures last occurred. This fell below the previous October record (from 2023) by a scant 0.02 degree Celsius (0.04°F). The European Copernicus Climate Change Service also rated October 2024 as the second-warmest October on record.
Land areas had their warmest October on record in 2024, according to NOAA, and global ocean temperatures were the second-warmest on record. The recent record heat in the oceans in 2024 has brought on a global coral bleaching event, the fourth one in recorded history (1998, 2010, 2014-17, and now 2024).
It was the warmest October on record for North America, second-warmest for South America and Oceania, fourth-warmest for Europe, fifth-warmest for Asia, and 10th-warmest for Africa.
Extraordinary heat in the tropical Atlantic
The Caribbean had its warmest October on record, and the Atlantic Main Development Region for hurricanes (from the coast of Africa to the Caribbean, between 10°N and 20°N) had its second-warmest October, behind 2023. For the three-month August through October peak of the Atlantic hurricane season, sea surface temperatures during 2024 in the Main Development Region were the second-warmest on record, behind only 2023 (Fig. 2). Both 2023 and 2024 had sea surface temperatures far in excess of any previous year – much higher than can be explained by the century-long increasing trend of 1.09 degrees Celsius (1.96°F). Unusual atmospheric circulation patterns made a significant contribution to this extraordinary warmth in 2023 and 2024. There is no way to know if this shift in weather patterns will continue in the coming years, potentially ushering in a new era of unusual intense hurricane activity. There is a risk that a tipping point has been crossed that will make the abnormally warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures of 2023-2024 commonplace, but it is more likely that 2023-2024 was an anomaly that will not be seen again for many years…
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