U of Turko, Finland Futures Research Center dissertation: DESIGN PRINCIPLES FOR ALTERNATIVE FUTURES OF COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEMS by Tuomas Kuhmonen

ABSTRACT

Societies are made of Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) which have no central command or ownership which self-organise through local interactions. Becoming aware of their possible futures is critical since they provide us food, energy, mobility, housing, democracy and much more. One of the main challenges in this mission is the innumerable set of future possibilities. A necessary number of manifestations of alternative futures (visions, futures images, scenarios) that can serve choices in the present is about a handful. How to reduce the diversity of future alternatives in a transparent, disciplined and systematic way, is the key challenge discussed in this research.

Design principles for alternative futures of CAS are provided as one solution for resolving the challenge. Design principles feature generic principles of creating manifestations of alternative futures on the frontier of diversity and subsidiarity. They are related to choosing an appropriate level of abstraction, delimitation of the choice space and identification of new attractors for the systems. Six empirical studies application of the principles in the domains of spatial, personal, system, policy and sector futures.

CAS tend to organize regimes that are highly institutionalised, path dependent dominant designs that resist significant changes. From time to time, the societal systems would need a reform towards better resilience and sustainability. In the domains of agrifood and rural systems, such have taken place only deep crises through. Even in these cases it is helpful to have concrete designs and visions for the developments that might take place after the bifurcation, since ‘becoming aware of different futures’ (Slaughter 1993, 290) is the key to survival and success in any possible future. In fact, it is the reason for the existence of futures science.

An introduction to “Society as a complex adaptive system”

KEYWORDS: agriculture, Complex Adaptive System, complexity, design, evolution, food, foresight, futures, regime, rural

FFRC-1-2025-Dissertation-Kuhmonen.pdf