Submission to Climate Change Town Hall Consultation

Author: Robert Hoffman, Ottawa.

Thank you for organizing the town hall meeting and providing the opportunity to participate.

By way of background, I have been engaged in computer based systems modelling, focused mainly on energy systems for Canada and the provinces, first at Statistics Canada, then in academia at U Waterloo, and currently as founder of a company specializing in custom modelling. As well, I am an active participant in the international systems science and cybernetics community as a member of the Club of Rome and a fellow of the World Academy of Art and Science.

1. Global warming is a much more serious threat to humankind than is commonly perceived. The IPCC has persistently underestimated the rate of change of global warming, and it has failed to communicate a sufficient understanding of the climate system to marshal an appropriate response. Further, there is a great deal of uncertainty as to the timing of the tipping point in the climate system at which time the system will be dominated by naturally occurring positive feedbacks and not controllable by reducing GHG emissions. The time window in which reductions in anthropogenic  GHG emissions can stabilize the climate is short.

   2, An essential step in formulating policies to reduce GHG emissions in Canada is to identify a physically and technologically coherent pathway for the transition of Canada’s energy system to one that reaches low carbon emissions by 2050. By low is meant less than 10% of 1990 levels. Once a pathway has been selected, the mix of policies intended to effect the transition can be implemented and  targets along the pathway can be set so that the effectiveness of the policies can be monitored and adjusted as necessary. There is little or no capacity in Canadian governments or academic institutions to perform the pathway analysis and monitor the effectiveness of policies. There is an urgent need for a new federal institution at arm’s length from government to play this role and to inform federal and provincial governments and the general public.

2. From my experience developing and using an energy systems model for Canada to explore  pathways to a low emissions energy system, it is clear that (a) electricity generation must be non-emitting and (b) road motor vehicles, cars and trucks, must be non-emitting powered by either electricity or hydrogen. These conditions are necessary but not sufficient. There is no pathway to a low emissions energy system for Canada in the time frame required that does not include these elements. With the exception of Alberta and Saskatchewan, most electricity generation in Canada is non-emitting – hydro and nuclear are the dominant sources. Vehicle stocks turn over every 15 years so that this transition can be made rapidly if new vehicles entering the stock are non-emitting.

4. Many of the policies that are being advocated (a) are not focused on the sectors that are essential if the transition is to be accomplished, (b) will not be effective within the time frame dictated by the urgency of the problem and (c) are incoherent with one another. For example, mass transit infrastructure cannot be put in place in the time frame of the needed transition, nor would it be necessary to do so from the perspective of emissions reductions if vehicle stocks became non-emitting.  Even under the best circumstances the percentage of passenger vkm that could be displaced by mass transit is very low. There is no compelling evidence that ‘putting a price on carbon’ is an effective policy option. At best, taxes and subsidies can be used to influence the prices of goods and services to provide incentives and reinforce other policies.There are many new technologies that show great promise, but the time required to produce them at scale in many cases is uncertain. Essentially, the transition can be made through the deployment of existing technologies.

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Bio: Robert Hoffman is one of the seven Canadian Members of the Club of Rome.  He is President of whatIf? Technologies Inc., a company that has modelled energy systems for Canada