David Harries – NATO spending to be raised to 5% GDP
The main issue, for Canada, in 2025, is not the FIGURE* of the PERCENTAGE of GDP spent** on defence. This remains so even now that Trump is back at the top of US politics.
* a NOMINAL figure NATO and every NATO member country complies with, or not, differently; a figure that is rising and will continue to do so.
** a time and politics-of-the-moment estimate that every NATO member country games and announces based on it own biases, assumptions and interests. At present Canada ‘shows’ three different figures (that are all subject to ‘dispute’).
The main issue, in 2025, in a highly stressed and fragmented world, where and when trusted friends are few and far between, is the state of international trust of and respect for Canada.
Both are at or near their lowest levels since before WWII.
Canada’s ‘leadership’ has ignored the ‘golden rule’ of relationships: To have a friend you have to be one.
Canada has ignored its NATO Commitment to Article 3, for more than half its territory.
Its ‘north’ and its Arctic are well on the way to becoming a playing field for Russians, Chinese and Americans, where none of the rules of the game are being set by Canada, and, embarrassingly, where Canada’s failure to maintain even its 1970s arctic capabilities*** has left it little more than being an infrequent observer, dependent on others to tell it the ‘score’ at any given time.
*** The Churchill saga is the poster child of Canada’s irresponsible failure to sustain strengths.
In the 1970s early 1980s Churchill was a vibrant ‘city’ with up to 4000 – 4000 – military personal, a rocket launch facility**** a busy mil-civ port, a busy mil-civ airport, some research facilities and some tourism, all connected with a well-maintained 1000 km+ rail-link to Winnipeg.
The railway was sold to Americans, without ‘terms-of-care’. The Americans lost interest, did not maintain the railway and it washed out with no recovery plan (for more than a year). Canada shut down the Wheat Board. Result: the Churchill port became an isolated and commercially irrelevant facility that has had a reason to be maintained.
Many Churchill residents left, by choice or necessity as services atrophied, opportunities dwindled, and living costs skyrocketed.
The only ‘industry’ became (expensive) tourism, with Churchill joining the lists of sites of “Last Chance Tourism” ((See Macleans, NYT, CBC…..))
All this while the Minister of Norther Affairs was from Winnipeg.
Whither Churchill? Canada’s only foreseeably operational, northly, national port/base/research centre for ???? decades.
To Note: recent (confusing) news about a prospective, unsupported-by-government rocket launch facility in the Maritimes.
Canada has arguably broken, or ‘adjusted’, more promises to its allies than any other NATO country.
A formal promise to spend the ‘nominal’ 2% was made to allies at a Summit many years ago. The national leader, famous for his disdain for all things military (except military photographers), was caught out – by American media – stating “Canada will never spend 2% on defence.”
Since the original promise, the now-deposed ‘leader’, has 1) completed four truly delusional flip-flops on matters of defence 2) announced two specific years and another (different) non-specific year in which Canada will fulfill its again-promise to spend 2 % of GDP on defence. The descriptions of the details of how this figure will be arrived, not to mention from whom Canada will be able to obtain the goods and services ‘promised’ are all delusional and internationally recognized as so.
Canada’s procurement performance in matters of security and defence is tragicomical.
Understaffed, under-trained, and underfunded procurement personnel are battling (politically influenced) priorities ranging from pencils and (still to be finally designed) frigates. Used subs, Used jets, ‘stealth’ snowmobiles. ‘New’ trucks with no roof and no doors, Rain jackets that let the rain in. Sleeping bags that let the cold in. Drones that may not work if ever they arrive. Faulty anti-tank weapons (refused by DND). NO air defence – NONE. Nationally admitted massive military “unreadiness’ for a long list of undisputed reasons. And, now, another study into a new helmet, but only for the ‘special forces’.
The arrival of hundreds of well-equipped, well-trained, well-supported, highly-motivated SWEDISH troops in the “Canadian-led” NATO ‘brigade’ in Latvia will highlight the Canadian ‘situation’…not least to the Canadian troops….who may have ‘left’ later this year because there will probably not be enough (numbers) fit, willing, trained individuals for a full rotation.
Trump has arrived.
Canada will have to truly raise its game for the next G7 (which it hosts) and the next NATO Summit (when the call for only 2 % GDP spending will formally become history).
But…. when will Canada have a national leader again, for certain for more than a few months?