A speculative roadmap to ‘deep decarbonization’
Although the Paris Agreement’s goals can, in principle, be technically and economically achieved alarming inconsistencies remain between science-based targets and national commitments. Despite progress during the 2016 Marrakech climate negotiations, long-term goals can be trumped by political short-termism.
A Science forum describes a roadmap that avoids solar geoengineering yet stays below two degrees C of global warming. Requirements: CO2 removal from the atmosphere of 0.5 GtCO2/year by 2030, 2.5 by 2040, and 5 by 2050. CO2 emissions from land-use must decrease along a nonlinear trajectory from 4 GtCO2/year in 2010, to 2 by 2030, 1 by 2040, and 0 [zero] by 2050. In my thoughtful opinion, these goals will not be attainable without solar albedo management and without much greater use of nuclear power than the authors anticipate–zj.