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The collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation AMOC would have
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catastrophic consequences for societies. We quantify the risk of committed AMOC collapse
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using large ensembles of Earth system model simulations. Under conservative assumptions of
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Greenland ice sheet melt, the probability that collapse is already committed is 10%, rising to
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80% by 2100 under worst case emissions. Under less conservative Greenland melt
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assumptions, probability that collapse is already committed is 23%.
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