Impossible for Canada to hit any party’s target by 2030
In the current election, the Conservatives say they will reduce Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions by 30% between 2005 and 2030, the original target adopted by the Liberal Government in Paris in 2015. The Liberals have upped the ante to 40 to 45%. The NDP says 50%. The Greens, 60%.
None of them, without exception, understand what that would take. Unlike the Mulroney government, which understood the science and technology of reducing emissions of acid rain and CFCs, they do not know how in practice to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide.
If the Liberal government had started reducing emissions from 2016, the average annual reduction required would have been 1.9% a year. But emissions have increased. So, whoever sets out in 2021, the slope will be much steeper: 3.3% a year.
(With acknowledgement to Richard Feynman) For a successful policy on global warming, understanding of feasible pathways to reach goals must take precedence over political whimsy, for nature cannot be fooled . Canada is in desperate need of politicians able to move beyond whimsy.
2021 September 16
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