The case for slowing down and stopping GDP growth so that you can truly think about our future
Do you Think Like a Futurist? Probably not – not many do. When we had our first snowfall there were around 40 accidents in Ottawa that morning. Why? Many drivers had not yet put on their winter tires! I guess snow was a surprise for them and they did not see that coming as part of their future. Or, could there be something more sinister at work? So, I asked 2 friends if they had put their snow tires on and both said no. I was shocked and then asked them why they had not done so. Their answer was simple; they figured they would do the job once the first snow fell. The fact that this meant dangerous driving for a few days did not matter to them for they, of course, figured that only other people would have an accident and they wouldn’t, because, of course, they were “especially good drivers”. So, that started me to thinking as to why we discount the future and don’t consider it ‘real’.
Coincidentally, that same day our weekly CACOR zoom presentation was by futurist Dr. Michael Marien presenting on zoom about Futurist thinking who basically asked: “Has futures-thinking and futures studies made any difference over the past decades? My answer is “generally no,” perhaps with a few exceptions for a few individuals, organizations, and/or nations.” Why is that, given that planning for the future is supposed to be an important trait for Home Sapiens?
Let’s begin with what the internet says about futurists and their role in our society, from an article entitled:
What Futurists Do?
They manage the future as we must now manage constant change.
To remain competitive and proactive, every business and society want to have a strong grip on the handle of future. By practicing curiosity, anticipations, and courage; — along with systematic tools and knowledge, futurists are supporting organizations and nations solving their toughest issues.
Wow! This sounds like futurists play and important role in our society…. And yet what I mostly see is reactive thinking. For example, I just learned from a friend that CDN provincial departments are being told to cut their budgets for next year. Why? Because, based upon Recessionary forces in the USA, they think Canada too will have a decline in economic activity next year. Could this be called Futurist thinking? I don’t think so – in fact I consider it to be normal reactive type behaviour. Instead, as Dr. Marien says, most people and societies are so overwhelmed by juggling all the balls in the air they have at this moment and have so many “unknown unknowns” that they consider any futurist ideas fraught with so much uncertainty that these often-excellent perceptions are ignored. Why risk looking bad when you can be the hero that saves the day AFTER the disaster, that “nobody knew was coming” [except for the futurists]?
In other words, our chronically overwhelmed and anxious state in a world filled with so much change that nothing seems certain any more [except death and taxes] makes futurist thinking neigh impossible, for both everyday folks who don’t put on their snow tires and political leaders who are mostly worrying about staying in power [whether democratic or not]. How can you truly think about the future – and I don’t mean concrete actions like saving a down payment for a house – when you are barely getting through your day in one piece? Societies stop growing their GDP, populations and consumption and instead focus on improving the quality of life for everybody, including the environment which sustains us. You slow down. You do less. You have empty spaces in your life – emotional, financial, time-wise – to reflect and you also reduce the stimulation of the constant barrage of “important news” that you “must” know to keep up to date. Pretend you are in Shangri La and you read the New York Times one year after it was published. Imagine you are Robinson Crusoe and you must work out how to improve your life; slowly, by having a vision of the future YOU want to create – not a future where you are a victim. In in other words, I make the case for slowing down so that you can truly think like a futurist. Pie in the sky? Here is evidence that futurist thinking can work in the real world.
Futurist studies is big in little Finland and does have an impact on government policy, according to Sirkka Heinonen: In Finland, we have futures studies as academic discipline. Finland Futures Research Centre at University of Turku, celebrates next week its 30th anniversary. We have both Master’s and Doctoral Programme in Futures Studies. At national level: government has used futures studies since 1993, preparing a government futures report every fourth year, submitted to Parliament’s permanent Committee for Futures for comments.
So, after all is said and done, I do, in spite of most of the evidence, belief that we all have the ability to put on our snow tires before the first snow falls. I do believe we can deal with the climate disaster before Miami and New York City are underwater. What can you do? Slow down! Have less stuff to burden you and make you worry! See the glass half full instead of half empty! Then you can help create a desired future, instead of the hell we seem to be blissfully marching towards.
References
https://medium.com/predict/the-rise-of-the-futurist-3510a37d345b
Must everything die in order to be alive? – Margarethe von Wrangell
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