What near-term climate impacts should worry us most?

This research paper – drawing on insights from 200 experts – highlights that, within the current decade, climate hazards are expected to have increasingly serious disruptive impacts. While many hazards may now be inevitable, action on adaptation has the potential to limit the worst expected climate impacts, at regional and global levels.

The 10 hazard-impact pathways of greatest near-term concern all relate to regions of Africa and Asia. The impacts of greatest concern – food security and migration and displacement of people – may arise from hazards such as drought, changing rainfall patterns or heatwaves. Impacts will be greatest where communities are already most vulnerable, but will also set off interacting, compounding cascades of secondary impacts that cross borders and continents.

That ‘no one is safe until everyone is safe’, often repeated during the COVID-19 pandemic, is just as critical in relation to climate hazards. Between now and 2030, support for adaptation measures to address socio-economic vulnerabilities in the most at-risk regions will be vital. Without such support, it will be impossible to avert systemic climate impact cascades that translate local hazards into impacts felt across the globe.

The short video explainer below outlines how, within the current decade, climate hazards are expected to have increasingly serious disruptive impacts.

Findings and conclusions

• Between now and 2030, climate hazards will have increasingly significant, disruptive impacts.
• The 10 direct hazard-impact pathways of greatest near-term concern all relate to Africa or Asia.
• Many socio-economic vulnerabilities to climate hazards have been identified in these regions. If left unaddressed, such vulnerabilities have the potential to initiate complex chains of impacts that are likely to have a destabilizing effect on national and international security in the near term.
• Decisive action is urgently needed to address socio-economic vulnerabilities to climate hazards in these regions. Such action can help prevent devastating local and regional impacts, and forestall cascading and compounding global climate impacts within the next decade.
• The near-term impacts of greatest concern are:Cascading impacts on food security, migration and global supply chains, originating in the most vulnerable countries and affecting regional country groups and the wider global community.
• Food security impacts in South and Southeast Asia, and Australasia.
• Global food security impacts arising from multiple climate hazards, including extreme heat, drought, storm damage, flooding and multiple breadbasket failure.
• Migration and displacement impacts in East Africa, South, Southeast and East Asia, the Caribbean and Central America.
• Cyclones and typhoons in Southeast and South Asia causing significant infrastructure loss and damage, with global cascading impacts on international supply chains.
• Drought and crop failure driving displacement and migration of people from East Africa and the Sahel into Southern Europe.
• Drought directly creating conditions for conflict in Africa, with particular vulnerability in East Africa.
• Changing rainfall patterns and drought impacting livelihoods and income in Africa.

To get the full report and learn about the recommendations, visit chathamhouse.org.