The Joy of Guessing
Surviving in a world of incomplete information and unintended consequences
Should I buy an electric car? If so, which one?
My house is in a flood plain: should I move?
My grandson was just born and I want to get to know him but he lives in BC: should I fly there, even though I stopped flying 10 years ago?
Should I become vegetarian or chose a Mediterranean diet?
As climate change and biosphere collapse accelerate these and other questions must be asked and your answers could mean life or death. There is one small problem though: you will have incomplete/wrong information and usually not be aware of the unintended consequences [unknown unknowns] of your decisions. So what can you do? Guess!
I guess a lot in my life. It’s been that way ever since I was a teenager and needed glasses – but seldom wore them. Somehow that simple act has led a me guessing when confronted with many other choices like, who am I going to marry? Is it time to move? What should do I with my time now that I am sick and no longer capable of full-time work. This meditation on the JOY of guessing is part of a theme that is near and dear to me: our pathological obsession for control. Of course, we need to control what we can – but without being obsessed and knowing that we are never in total control of our lives. That acknowledgement creates a humility within us that has the potential to make us better people. Let’s admit that the future is a guess and then do whatever we can with our incomplete information and limited abilities and jump into the cesspool of life and enjoy swimming in the uncertainty. The plain truth is, in spite of the internet and computers, we live in a world of incomplete information and unintended consequences are the norm. Now let’s explore how seeing guessing as a positive rather than negative trait can impact our lives so that we will be more able to confront the disastrous ecological challenges we all face.
Prediction is difficult – particularly when it involves the future. Mark Twain
First off, let’s be clear that this is not a totally original idea. Two years ago Anne Bogel wrote a book titled “Don’t Overthink It: Make Easier Decisions, Stop Second-Guessing, and Bring More Joy to Your Life”. Here is her thesis. “We’ve all been there: stuck in a cycle of what-ifs, plagued by indecision, paralyzed by the fear of getting it wrong. Nobody wants to live a life of constant overthinking, but it doesn’t feel like something we can choose to stop doing. It feels like something we’re wired to do, something we just can’t escape. But is it? Anne Bogel’s answer is no. Not only can you overcome negative thought patterns that are repetitive, unhealthy, and unhelpful, you can replace them with positive thought patterns that will bring more peace, joy, and love into your life.” In other words, learn all you can before you make a choice or work on a project, and then courageously guess at the right path, knowing that you will seldom be completely right. Then, once you notice that you are, probably, slightly off course, adjust your sails without criticizing yourself.
Second, did you notice that the first part of the title is JOY? Wonder why I chose that word? Well, it’s because I am a 3rd Order Franciscan, that is, a normal married guy trying to follow [partially] in the path set out by St. Francis of Assisi. Once of his unique ways of life, besides being the first European to explicitly include animals and plants and the forces of Natures in his prayers. Another less well known feature of his worldview is to insist that any act or thought that is without JOY is “arid”, is not “alive”, is not “right” because it does not inspire and motivate others to follow an idea, that may be good in the abstract, but is going nowhere without JOY. This may sound like a Pollyanna [you want to pretend that all is sweetness and light in a way that is a denial of harsh reality] way to behave, but believer you me – it is effective! So, let’s be pragmatic, and discipline ourselves to choose to make JOY as part of how we execute all we do and choose to make our life, and those around us, better.
Third, given that we are a bunch of geeks who value Science and research, it might add value to my proposition to see what Science has to say about JOY and guessing. What about JOY? It is important to note that joy is different than happiness.
Research has found that joy activates different systems than happiness does. Joy activates the parasympathetic nervous system, which promotes feelings of peace and calm; while happiness activates the sympathetic nervous system, which is associated with excitement, energy, and activity. The experience of joy is associated with an increase in energy as well as an increase in confidence and self-esteem, according to the APA. Another difference between joy and happiness is that joy can coexist with more negative emotions, such as grief or pain, while happiness is much harder to sustain in the presence of negative emotions. Psychologist George Vaillant describes this difference by saying, “Without the pain of farewell, there is no joy of reunion” and “Without the pain of captivity, we don’t experience the joy of freedom.”
Now, what does Science say about uncertainty and guessing?
While conventional wisdom says that people don’t like uncertain gains or rewards, a study from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business finds that uncertainty can play an important role in motivating repeat behaviors. One reason uncertain incentives motivate behavior is the psychological boost consumers get in moving from the unpleasantness of uncertainty to the satisfaction of certainty resolution.
Nobel prize-winning Physicist Richard Feynman’s lecture about making up a theory. He said the first thing one needs to do is GUESS what it should be. His students giggled at this, but it was very important he said. Then one had to test the guess, do some experiments, and if it didn’t work throw it away! So when Don has his students guessing to solve equations, he feels confident that he is going in the right direction. Besides Feynman telling us, guessing is very important, for 5 reasons:
1) you start off right away.
2) it gets you into the problem, you don’t have to have this “I haven’t been taught this, so I can’t do it ” attitude and then feel you have to wait for someone to tell you how to solve it.
3) you can solve many equations this way, not a trivial few, as well as solving other types of problems. Don’t be discouraged if you guess wrong the first few times; keep trying, you can do it. Along with guessing goes the question-are you getting closer? Is the guess too big or too small?
4) you’ll also get better at guessing. And
5) you might even come up with different ways to solve the same problem, which would be very good. Then you would have a check to tell you if you are right or not, like when taking a test, and without having to rely on someone else to tell you.
So, what can you do?
Strive for JOY to avoid climate despair
Become comfortable with uncertainty and guessing
Realize that everything you know is true, is at best partially true
Look for unintended consequences and when you notice them react to them because they are often more important than the issue you were dealing with
And finally, as always, never, never, never give up!
Life is not being sure what will come next or how it will come. We guess at everything we do. We take leap and leap in the dark and that’s the joy of living and the beauty of faith. When we grow tired, when we sit still, that’s when we being to die… Angela E. Hunt
Let’s wrap this up by repeating my punchline [literally]. Let’s admit that the future is a guess and then do whatever we can with our incomplete information and limited abilities and jump into the cesspool of life and enjoy swimming in the uncertainty.
Now let’s explore how seeing guessing as a positive rather than negative trait can impact our lives so that we will be more able to confront the disastrous ecological challenges we all face. So, grab 2 sticks and play the fiddle like the monk below and joyfully guess what to do next in your life and you will have a good chance of being part of the team that is going to save the world from our current path to self destruction.
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