2005 Series 3 Number 6 Page 6
The Impending Twin Crises–One Set of Solutions.
The somewhat long essay (ten pages) by John Walsh, an engineer and energy advisor, explored the concurrent climate change crisis caused by human emissions from fossil fuels and the energy crisis caused by the rapid depletion of conventional fossil fuel supplies.
Inter alia, Mr. Walsh thought there was a need to reduce emissions by about 50% to avoid serious climate change. [Global emissions in 2005 were ~28.7 Gt CO2eq (not including land use change). In 2024, emissions were 37.6 Gt (up 35%). Ed.]
He thought, too, that some extremely serious event(s) related to climate change would be required before humanity would actually act to limit emissions and that the exhaustion of fossil fuel reserves might actually happen first.
Canada’s situation was explored in some depth by Mr. Walsh. Despite its rich energy resources, as a result of international agreements, he felt Canada was likely to experience the worst of both worlds: without ability to control prices or supplies in its markets and ability to gain tradable emission credits.
Mr. Walsh saw that Canada was likely to be faced with an immense challenge in control of its emissions given it planned to expand from 1 million barrels per day from the Athabasca bitumen sands to 5 million bpd by 2030. [We have now, in 2024, surpassed 4 million bpd. It is extremely difficult to get data on emissions from the bitumen sands, but they have surely risen substantially. Ed.]
Regarding extremely serious event(s), Mr. Walsh mentioned cessation of the Gulf Stream, floods, droughts, rising sea levels, and coastal inundation, and insurance industry losses associated with such events. These things might “ring the gong,” in his view. [They have, of course, occurred, but we seem to be ignoring the repeated sounding of the gong. Ed.]
[In the event, the widespread use of nonconventional oil–especially production from oilshales–has delayed Peak Oil, making the serious event(s) now the most likely scenario. Ed.]
Rather than wait for serious events and then trying to react, Mr. Walsh proposed Canadians do all sorts of things to reduce their fuel use (conserve), simultaneously lowering their emissions.
Link to | The Impending Twin Crises–One Set of Solutions.
Link to | Webpage for John Walsh.
[Interestingly, there is a link to an old and out-of-date, but still readable, CACOR webpage in Mr. Walsh’s material. Ed.]
Leave a Reply