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The Grid will go Down so Prepare for It – Off grid Living and Microgrids to the Rescue

Attribution: CACOR, gordon kubanek

Poster's Comment

the grid is going down more often and we must all prepare for it

The Grid will go Down so Prepare for It

Off grid Living and Microgrids to the Rescue

There is a Swedish saying: “There is no bad weather, there is only the wrong clothing.” With this view in mind let’s explore why and how you should assume the grid where you live will go down for several days and how you can prepare for it. Right away I want to emphasize that I am NOT being a “doomer”. The grid is not going to collapse in Canada anytime soon, but given that our lives come to a grinding halt without power and given that recent climate events and the fact that it has not been updated or maintained properly or even improved to do something as basic as putting all wires within cities underground means that it is more fragile and that we are more reliant on its power than in the past. You WILL lose your power, it is only a matter of when and for how long. There is a lot you can do, but if I were young I would recommend, whether you live in the city or country, investing in a microgrid and a home that is very energy efficient by either upgrading an old place or building a PASSIV HAUS standard or LEED standard home. Remember every crisis is just an opportunity to make things better!

First, is there REALLY a problem or is there just a perception that there is a problem? Let’s first look at US data as they have bigger problems and have studied this in more detail. However, don’t think of this as an American problem alone, because as the climate warms the weather system causing havoc in the US will move north to us, as made clear by the recent Derecho which struck Ontario and Quebec in April. Climate Central’s analysis of 28 years of power outage data, supplied to the federal government and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation by utilities, shows:   • A tenfold increase in major power outages (those affecting more than 50,000 customer homes or businesses), between the mid-1980s and 2012. Some of the increase was driven by improved reporting. Yet even since 2003, after stricter reporting requirements were widely implemented, the average annual number of weather-related power outages doubled. Non-weather related outages also increased during that time, but weather caused 80 percent of all outages between 2003-2012.

Need more convincing? . The current U.S. electric power infrastructure is aging, and suffering from chronic under-investments. The existing capacity expansion plans in the electricity sector are not keeping pace with the society’s rising demand [1]. On the other hand, under climate change, the frequency and/or intensity of extreme weather and climate events are increasing in many regions of the world [2–12]. Extreme weather and climate events are among the primary causes of infrastructure damage causing large-scale cascading power outages, or shifts in the end-use electricity demands leading to supply inadequacy risks in the United States. And if you want another data source to confirm the trend showing significant increases in power outages how about this graph from The Economist:

Meanwhile in Canada:

In particular our region of Canada, Eastern Ontario, reports state that longer outages, on average, and lower-than average levels of satisfaction with distributors’ ability to provide answers on why and how long an outage is taking place, and when it will be fixed.

Second, let’s look at the underlying problem: we are cheap and think short term. For example, here are some finding from a 2010 Ontario Energy board report: “ A majority of Ontarians (57%) are not willing to pay more to improve their system reliability to near-zero outages. Three in ten report a price sensitivity issue as the most important energy/electricity issue facing their community – price increases accounting for the greatest proportion of this number (25%)” The reason power costs so much is that we have high energy life style buildings and demands. Modern tech and LEED/Passiv house designs can reduce our power demand by over 80%, but this needs a modern, updated grid. Our transition to a modern distributed power grid based on renewables and microgrids is not advancing quickly in Canada. This just means that we are more reliant on power lines spanning hundreds or even thousands of km that more and more a being damaged by extreme weather events. Is it technically possible to build a modern, stable grid? Yes! Will we do it? Maybe… but only after lots of nasty power outages is my guess, because we are a reactive culture. But, every crisis is also an opportunity!

Third, let’s now emphasize the good news! Technology has changed so much that you can retrofit your homes into being part of a microgrid. Yes, in Ontario and much of Canada you will be considered a bit “weird” but elsewhere in the world this approach is being seen as the only way to build a stable and affordable electrical future that happens to also reduce GHG emissions. To learn more watch this presentation recorded July 27 at CACOR and presented by Art Hunter titled: The Energy Transition: How Microgrids Can Help Rebuild Ontario’s Power Grid and Electrify Everything. The link is the last in the references. Here is a short summary of how we can all transition to a stable grid, reduce GHGs, and reduce your power bills. A microgrid is a local energy grid with control capability, which means it can disconnect from the traditional grid and operate autonomously. To understand how a microgrid works, you first have to understand how the grid works. The grid connects homes, businesses and other buildings to central power sources, which allow us to use appliances, heating/cooling systems and electronics. But this interconnectedness means that when part of the grid needs to be repaired, everyone is affected. This is where a microgrid can help. A microgrid generally operates while connected to the grid, but importantly, it can break off and operate on its own using local energy generation in times of crisis like storms or power outages, or for other reasons. A microgrid can be powered by distributed generators, batteries, and/or renewable resources like solar panels. Depending on how it’s fueled and how its requirements are managed, a microgrid might run indefinitely.

So, what can you do about? Well, first don’t panic, but also don’t live in a fool’s paradise thinking that life will go on as normal in the future – it will not! Life is change, and most of us not in positions of power can only adapt. In the case of knowing that blackouts will be a part of your future this means setting up your life to be able to continue to have a relatively normal life when the grid goes down. If you are thinking that buying a gasoline generator is good enough – forget it. Why is that?  I am not talking about power outages that last days and the fact is unless you have many, many extra cans of gasoline stored your generator will run out of fuel after a day and your local gas station will not help you as it too needs electricity to operate.

 

 

 

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