A report by RMI says renewable energy prices will drop dramatically by the end of this decade, making wind and solar irresistible.
A new report from RMI, formerly known as the Rocky Mountain Institute, claims that renewable energy — wind and solar — is on track for exponential growth that will lead to a disruption of the electricity sector worldwide this decade.
The report, written by Kingsmill Bond, Sam Butler-Sloss, Amory Lovins, Laurens Speelman, and Nigel Topping, says that solar, wind, and storage batteries have been following a typical path for new technology. Learning curves lead to falling prices, which lead to rapid growth in new capacity. “New solar and battery capacity, policy targets, the momentum of change, and the logic of S-curves all point to continued exponential growth in solar and wind generation for the rest of this decade at 15%–20% a year,” they write. In particular, they suggest the cost of solar power will be cut in half and the cost of wind energy by a quarter by the end of this decade.
“Despite those who say insurmountable barriers to the energy transition are everywhere, growth keeps happening. While barriers are specific and local, solutions are generic and global and will continue to overwhelm resistance to change. As a result, fast growth will lead to a tripling in solar and wind generation by 2030 while faster growth will mean a quadrupling in generation, to produce more than 14,000 terawatt hours (TWh) and overtake fossil fuel supply,” the report claims.
As prices continue to fall, renewable energy has become so attractive that it now garners more new investments than fossil fuels. 62% of global energy investments are expected to flow to clean energy technologies this year.
According to estimates from the International Energy Agency, global clean energy capacity is expected to add 107 gigawatts of electricity this year for a worldwide total of 440 gigawatts this year — the largest annual increase ever.
What we’re living in “is an energy technology revolution,” said report co-author Kingsmill Bond, an energy strategist at RMI. It’s obvious from the data, yet the point is often lost in “a consistent drumbeat of counter-narratives” about how difficult it is, and will be, to leave fossil fuels behind, he added. “U.S. fossil fuel demand peaked 15 years ago,” Bond said. “This is happening. People have just missed it.”
Renewable energy costs have fallen, and are projected to keep falling, because these technologies are riding “learning curves.” For every cumulative doubling of the deployed tech, its cost declines by a quantifiable percentage that varies by technology. Over the past 40 years, the average learning rate has been 20% for solar and 13% for wind.
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