This paper by John Walsh was abstracted from a longer document entitled The American Technological Renaissance and the Role of Government in Technology with Special Reference to the Carbon Dioxide Problem. The purpose of the original paper was to suggest that two influence influential but distinct establishments exist in the USA: the usual business-political-legal-economist hegemony; and a more amorphous scientific-technological-military-medical research-oriented association. The latter is not as visible and is much less well organized, but it is powerful nonetheless. The main objective of the latter group, and the primary source of its influence, is its responsibility to ensure American leadership in all the main fields of technological endeavour. In this it has been strikingly successful of late after the challenges mounted by some other countries two decades or so ago. in Canada, there is no equivalent of this second grouping centred on research and development with anything like the same influence. As a result, events in the USA tend to be viewed here in terms of a unitary establishment dominated by economic thought and through a prism that focuses on the influence of the first American establishment. Serious errors are thus possible in interpreting American intentions. The source paper examined the role of the R&D community in USA within a suggested framework for the discussion of technology (as opposed to science) in a market economy. It then illustrated how the influence of the second establishment applies in the context of the global climate change problem. It is this final section of the document that appears below in an edited form.
1997 Series 1 Number 23 Page 7
[In May 2024, the longer document could not be located on the internet. Ed.]
The paper explored the main fossil fuels (oil, gas, and coal) at some length. The final section of the paper is provided below.
Concluding Remarks
The resources of the fossil fuels available to the world are sufficiently large that depletion effects will not automatically reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide through the first half of the coming century, although the supply of oil might be expected to become steadily less flexible. In fact, if emissions are to be limited in some way, with other things being equal, the price of fossil fuels may actually decrease because the highest cost sources would normally be shut down first. This tendency will make the problem of control even more difficult in the next decades. Moreover, there is no new technology known at present that will pull the energy system away from an excessive dependence on the fossil fuels of its own accord. However, there are a number of smaller individual efficiency improvements that could be implemented at little or no cost, or even with actual savings.
These two factors lead to the conclusion that global measures to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases will have a net cost and thus be a drag on economic activity. The problem is to minimize this cost.
It is wrong to believe there is no role for the companies producing fossil fuels in an era when the missions of carbon dioxide must be controlled, even in the most restrictive situation where 55-60% of the emissions must be reduced, to stabilize concentrations of this gas in the atmosphere. A large industry would continue to exist with the widespread adoption of processes for the capture and sequestering of carbon dioxide as may be required in the more serious situations.
The consumption of fossil fuels could actually increase in specific applications because of the loss of conversion efficiency inherent in this type of process. The technology these organizations either have or can develop to deal with various aspects of the greenhouse gas problem is also important. Companies in the business of producing or otherwise depending on the fossil fuels should follow 3 rules until the situation is clarified: (1) avoid public controversy but promote the wise use of energy, (2) support the greenhouse gas R&D program of the International Energy Agency, (3) avoid the ideologues like the plague.
Link to | Some Resource and Technology Aspects of the Carbon Dioxide Question.
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