Seeing Collapse as Inevitable is a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy but Denial only ensures Collapse
So what are we to do?
There is an old idea that there are two devils. They represent two extremes we tend to gravitate to because both simplify our lives and make the world a neat and tidy place that we can pretend to control and understand. Some call the devil that is too beautiful and smart and self-centered for his/her own good as Lucifer – a fallen angel who is narcissistic and whose logic is perfection itself and whose ideals of freedom are so attractive. The other devil is Ahriman from ancient Persia – the twisted, earth bound, ugly, cynical, materialist and realist who strives for power and control and money and just “getting the job done”. Today I will have you ponder this thought: whenever we fall into an extreme position that sees anything we do as either pointless or so wonderful that we are going to save the world we have fallen for one of these two devils. So if you think “we are doomed so may as well enjoy the party while we can and just be nice to each other” or “If we just stopped flying, became vegetarians and did not own a car we will save the world from destruction” you’ve fallen into the hands of one of these two devils. The plain fact is both are partially true. Life is a muddle. Life is messy. Life is dynamic. Life is rife with contradictions. We are free to choose – or are we? So, given this quandary, what are we to do?
Let’s begin with the idea of the Self-fulfilling prophecy which is defined as “the phenomenon whereby a person’s or a group’s expectation for the behavior of another person or group serves actually to bring about the prophesied or expected behavior.” Here is this idea explored in more detail. Due to their own biases, the predictor may unconsciously take actions that cause the prediction to happen, for better or worse. An everyday example can be found in sports. If a player enters a game certain that they will lose, it can cause a psychological feedback loop where he plays the game poorly, causing the loss predicted and resulting in a self-fulfilling prophecy. Another example is the placebo effect when a person experiences beneficial outcomes because they expect an inactive “look-alike” substance or treatment to work, even though it has no known medical effect. Simply put, a false reality could actually become truth due to human psychological responses to predictions, fears, and worries associated with the future.
It seems that we are falling into this trap. We either deny that humanity is destroying the world ecosystem or we imagine that we are doomed to destruction and there is no escape. Both escape from facing reality in different ways, both are attitudes from the two devils mentioned above as they are extreme, and fail to acknowledge both our freedom to choose [albeit, limited] and the fact that we don’t know it all so there are clearly “unknowable unknowns” lurking out there that can both make our challenges worse AND open doors to not yet imagined opportunities. Our task, for now, is to keep on searching for those invisible, open doors which exist but are unseen; doors that make our chances of success more dubious AND also doors that can allow us to co-create, with Gaia, a radically different society. In other words, we can believe in the power of belief.
All models/beliefs are wrong/incomplete, but some are useful
British statistician George E. P. Box
Now most of us think of belief as an unscientific, irrational left over from the times when we were ‘ignorant savages’. My response? Yes and no. Yes, there are beliefs that limit us, but there are also beliefs that empower us and give us wings. The schematic above makes my way of thinking very clear.
So, if you want to change the world you have to change what you believe.
The challenge is that we all like the blind men touching different parts of the elephant and coming to only a partial understanding of what an elephant truly is dangerous. Thus anything we believe in will be partial and if we believe it is the whole truth – wrong. Is there a way out?
Yes, perhaps we can take some of the partial truths from each viewpoint and see the whole elephant.
Yes, the colonial-like 1st vs 3rd divided world of global capitalism predicated upon exponential economic and monetary and consumption and population growth is dead in the water. And good riddance to it. Denial of this fact is blindness to what we see all around us. It is an inability to grow up and face the impacts of the choices we have made. But thinking that life itself is about to end is also just plain silly, life has survived worse that the human plague and will continue – just in some other form. The people are right to want to life, to play, to smile, to cherish their children – a living attitude begets life. However the problem with accepting collapse as inevitable is that it turns us into “doomers” – death cult as it has for many – is that it is a death ideology and death only begets death. It is a self-fulfilling prophesy.
I choose life. Not delusional, because all things, including our present society, dies. But Life, with a capital L, goes on. Hope yes, but not delusional hope. Everything is going to change. Life as we know it is over. But honestly, this happened many times before in History. The Mayans cities collapsed, to the population fled into the jungles and lived on, albeit in a much simpler life with fewer people. Rome fell, but life went on. Collapse seems to a necessary simplification when a society gets too complex and too self absorbed that it forgets that it relies totally on the land, the water, the forests and the microbes in the soil for its very existence. Civilization seems to be a kind of species narcissism wherein we sever and then forget that connection. To live is to be connected, is to be part of a giant web. Ecologists and theologians yell that at us until they are blue in the face – but nobody is listening. The noises of civilization are too loud. The sound of technology is too loud.
Most of us still believe that technology will save us. However some think that the negative unintended consequences of technology are inherently predictable and unavoidable, techno-optimism is completely unjustified, and modern technology, in the presence of continued economic growth, does not promote sustainability, but hastens collapse. Here are few comments on this idea from a review of the book “TECHNO-FIX” by Huesemann written by R. REESE.
Welcome to our all-you-can-eat buffet of eco-predicaments, a remarkable achievement brought to you by our old friend, technological innovation. Our friend isn’t evil. He’s a hilarious charismatic trickster who excels at making comical mistakes. Every brilliant idea blows up in his face, flattens him with a boulder, or rockets him over a cliff. He never gives up. He never learns from his mistakes. He never succeeds. Like the trickster, Americans are famous for our manic techno-optimism. Economic growth and material progress make us giddy with delight, and seventy-two percent of us believe that the benefits far outweigh the harms. The planet doesn’t matter. Technology will certainly enable the kids to have a somewhat lifelike experience, riveted to their glowing screens. A sane person can only conclude that we live in a world of illusions.
The human species invented techno-addiction, a dangerous habit that seems impossible to quit; we always need bigger doses. This addiction has put quite a kink in our evolutionary journey, repeatedly blowing up in our face. Science and technology are the mommy and daddy of most of our severe problems. No other species has developed a fascination with endless growth. The other critters have remained in balance for millions of years, limited by predators and food supply, nature’s brilliant time-proven design. The Huesemanns note that we took a different path. “Humans have used powerful technologies to escape these natural constraints, first by using weapons to eliminate large predators, then by inventing agriculture to increase food supplies, and finally by employing sanitation and medical technologies to increase their chances for survival.” Our devious experiments at controlling and exploiting nature have created a thousand nightmares. We’ve zoomed right past seven billion, giving the planet quite a fever. Still, the mainstream mindset is convinced that life is always getting better and better, and that technology will overcome any challenges on our joyride to utopia. We have no doubt economic growth can continue until the sun burns out, and nothing will ever slow us down. According to Huesemann’s Law of Techno-Optimism, “Optimism is inversely proportional to knowledge.”
Enough of ideas. Let look at history. Every civilization has its days. The average empire only last 250 years. Perhaps we will be average, perhaps not – it is our choice, but what is certain is that our time is limited. One interesting tidbit of history is that we see that individual obsessed culture that only sees threats and lack the social cohesion to work for the common good. However, if we stop being self-absorbed, believe in the common good and that our human imagination can find new, creative ways of living with Gaia, we can thrive – but only AFTER life as we know it is swept away. How painful that cleaning will be is up to us. We get to choose. If we can believe in that, we have a chance. So, let’s believe that once we admit to the mess we are in is so profound that life as it is cannot go let look for the wonderful opportunities that surround us and that we just haven’t found yet.
I leave some words from an edited version of parts of Psalm 102 to consider as I leave you. So I said:
Do not take me away in the midst of my days;
Life’s years go on through all generations. In the beginning Life laid the foundations of the earth,
and the heavens are the work of Life’s hands.
They will perish, but Life remain;
they will all wear out like a garment.
Like clothing Life will change them
and they will be discarded.
But Life remain the same,
and Life’s years will never end.
For Life goes on even as I and all I know passes away.
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