Peace is maintained by the equilibrium of forces, and will continue just as long as this equilibrium exists, and no longer. ― Carl von Clausewitz, On War
I have a simple proposition for you: our society`s social equilibrium has been profoundly disturbed- first by the 2007 financial crises, then by Trumpism, then by Covid-19, and soon by climate change. This means we are no longer ‘at peace’ with ourselves, but rather, ‘at war’, using von Clausewitz’s view of politics and society. I will build on this view by pointing out a few trends that are visible that show a possible move towards a more centralized control view of government becoming the de facto norm. Basically, this means a move away from an American style free for all, with its focus on individualism, to a more Chinese style command and control structure. Please recognize that I am not a fan of either social form as I think they are both extreme and thus in some fundamental way “inhuman”. I say this because of my view that human beings as fundamentally social yet composed of unique individuals who only work together well when their unique skills and needs are taken into account in the social structure. So, here is some food for thought on the possible political implications of Covid-19.
I Is there a Case for the Increased Powers for the State?
“In China, if the government decides to do something, it is done. It is not like in Spain or the United States where there can be debate about confinements and closures. Everybody obeys. There are advantages and disadvantages of dictatorships, but in public health clearly the policy is much more consistent,”
In business there is the concept of being a “thought leader”. This idea certainly applies to political power. Any leading empire leads not only because of military might, but because other admire them, respect them and try to emulate them. For example, Rome at its height was considered invincible by their enemies [they were not] and most of the conquered peoples [not the Jews] were happy to copy Roman culture and make it their own. Why? Well, they admired the Roman way of life, not just the army, their world view and value system. This made Rome strong. When they lost that credibility, they went into decline. [yes, it’s more complicated than that, but this was a big part of the story] It’s the same today. The USA has been the world’s “thought leader” since WWII. Everybody has either copied them or looked at them as a model of what NOT to do; either way, they have been the reference point, the ‘gold standard’. Many would say, and I include myself in this chorus, that this is no longer the case. American capitalism is no longer admired. American culture, with its race wars, gun violence, political and racial divides, excessive military spending and continuous wars, is no longer the envy of the world. For example, this headline from an article in the Asian Times, examines the American decline and possible [not probable] rise of China as a replacement:
Why America is no longer world’s ‘natural’ leader
https://asiatimes.com/2020/07/why-america-is-no-longer-worlds-natural-leader/
This is an external view of the battle for global supremacy. What I am interested in for the sake of this article if the fact that the IDEA of the relationship between individual and State is in play today. IS Covid is playing a significant part in this? How? Very simply, China has few Covid-19 deaths and a growing economy while the USA has almost ½ million deaths and a shrinking economy: – 3.5%, the worse since 1946. You may ask, what about the performance of Norway? Or Australia? Or South Korea? The fact is, they are not world leaders in economic and political might, and therefore they are disqualified as thought leaders as well, unfortunately. This all could mean, based upon the reality that fighting Covid-19 is a public health issue, requiring coordinated policy and resources allocation, that a social model that is more public and less private oriented is gaining ascendancy as the “natural” way to govern. Thus, dealing with Covid-19 is inherently political – even in Canada. Take a look at this CBC video Why the COVID-19 vaccine has become so political in Canada https://www.cbc.ca/player/play/1849859651880
Now the way societies respond to crises depend upon the nature of the crisis – in the case of Covid-19 it is a public health crisis. Some research has concluded that because of how people look at health, they are more likely to allow “big government” handle this kind of crises. https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-050409-113009
Voters and politicians in the developed world appear more likely to accept redistributive claims with
respect to health than they are in other policy areas. Nations vary less widely in spending on health
than on other functions of government and policy.
Now, this article does not say it directly, but indirectly the result of allowing government a heavier hand to deal with a health crisis like Covid-19 is to have a point of view that more government control is helpful and necessary. This is thus the probable direction of the new normal social model.
II The US has been in decline for decades, Covid-19 has only made it obvious
Covid-19 is having an absolutely devastating impact on the reputation and international standing of the United States of America. In a dark season of pestilence, COVID has reduced to tatters the illusion of American exceptionalism: does this make it a turning point in History?
The above is an excerpt from an article in Rolling Stone.
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/political-commentary/covid-19-end-of-american-era-wade-davis-1038206/amp/?__twitter_impression=true&fbclid=IwAR1cHZeQcSGE0QNQXfw3UQWkHHqRNJKBXaFm03IX2PSTxMpQ60uTegIPApc This article is highly critical of the last several decades of the American dream turned nightmare. It’s not just that close to 500,000 Americans have died of Covid-19, this disaster only builds upon the deaths from gun violence and the Opioid epidemic that point to a society in self-destruct mode. As Jarrod Diamond says, every society is a social experiment. Ours is too. It seems that the American experiment is a failure. They tell us what NOT to do. To further quote from the above article:
More than any other country, the United States in the post-war era lionized the individual at the expense of community and family. It was the sociological equivalent of splitting the atom. What was gained in terms of mobility and personal freedom came at the expense of common purpose. In wide swaths of America, the family as an institution lost its grounding. By the 1960s, 40 percent of marriages were ending in divorce. Only six percent of American homes had grandparents living beneath the same roof as grandchildren; elders were abandoned to retirement homes. With slogans like “24/7” celebrating complete dedication to the workplace, men and women exhausted themselves in jobs that only reinforced their isolation from their families. The average American father spends less than 20 minutes a day in direct communication with his child…. The nation consumes two-thirds of the world’s production of antidepressant drugs. The collapse of the working-class family has been responsible in part for an opioid crisis that has displaced car accidents as the leading cause of death for Americans under 50. At the root of this transformation and decline lies an ever-widening chasm between Americans who have and those who have little or nothing. Another similar thinking writer is Chris Hedges: he is what I would call a writer enraged by this self-inflicted death wound on the American soul. He does not believe America can reinvent itself because the vested interests are too powerful. I would say, time will tell. All I can confidently say for sure is that the American social model focussed on individual freedoms at the expense of social belonging has been found wanting.
Unfettered capitalism is a revolutionary force that consumes greater and greater numbers of human lives until it consumes itself.
C.Hedges [I would say the same of unfettered Communism]
III If we Use the Metaphor that we are “at War” with Covid: How does that inform our Actions?
War is a continuation of Policy with Other means. Von Clausewitz
Given this famous quote as an inspiration I think it useful to examine von Clausewitz’s ideas on strategy, as strategy was for him the essential ingredient for success. He says to win a war you need the best strategy because you always have limited resources and thus must FOCUS them to get the desired result. Thus:
The talent of the strategist is to identify the decisive point and to concentrate everything on it, removing forces from secondary fronts and ignoring lesser objectives. Von Clausewitz
Clausewitz lays out here a powerful definition of strategy. Let’s unpack Clausewitz’s definition by examining its key words:
Identify: Good strategy always starts with a situation analysis to create a deep understanding of the competitive environment and our own realities. The military mantra is, “intelligence precedes operations.”
The decisive point: Here he refers to what I call the winning proposition — the central animating idea around which we must organize all our decisions and activities in order to outperform our competitors. Once we have identified this, it’s all about focus and determination.
Concentrate: Note here the words “concentrate everything” — not only our physical resources, but also the hearts and minds of our people. To quote Basil Hart, the military historian: “All the lessons of war can be reduced to a single word: concentration.”
Remove: Every new thing we choose to do subtracts effort from everything else we do. Making choices therefore means deciding what we will not do. These subtractions are the toughest decisions of all, but ducking them can be fatal. The most dangerous choice of all is not choosing.
Ignore: A winning strategy requires a disciplined mind and a steadfast character. No distractions; no sideshows. We must always keep the main thing the main thing.
Clausewitz’s definition gives us the theoretical superstructure for thinking and acting strategically. All elaborations are subplots of this central theme. https://thediplomat.com/2014/11/everything-you-know-about-clausewitz-is-wrong/
What does this mean for the way our politics will evolve as we confront not only Covid-19, but future pandemics, climate change, etc.? Well, unless we have a strategy that directs our limited resources and focusses our hearts and minds totally on winning – we will lose. We are certainly losing now. We are unfocussed. We have no strategy – we only have slightly thought out reactions at best and knee-jerk reactions at worst. So, what are you doing? How are you engaged politically with the changes that Covid-19 is having on our society? How will you help with this ‘war’ – the first of many coming our way? People, properly organized, have the ability to over-come this virus and climate change and all the other challenges coming our way – but that ability needs direction and focus. The typical Canadian attitude of “it’s good enough” or “well, we tried our best” or “when everybody feels the same way we will act in a way so nobody is offended” are only recipes for defeat. So –
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