2001 Series 2 Number 3 Page 9
Parabolic Projection of World Conventional Oil Production.
In this six-page essay, John Walsh explored what he felt was likely to happen to world oil supplies. His focus was on conventional supplies, not heavy oils, bitumen, and oil-shale fluids.
[At the time, 1998, world annual oil production was ~25 gigabarrels (GB). This was not presented in the article. Ed.]
There were four projections, each with a different estimate of undiscovered but discoverable oil.
The projections had peak annual production at ~30 GB between 2017 and 2024.
For about two decades, world per capita oil consumption had been ~4.4 barrels. The projections had that amount falling to about 3.8 barrels by 2050 and close to 3 barrels by 2070.
Interestingly, Mr. Walsh had world human population peaking at 8.0 billion in 2050. [Of course, here we are in 2025 at 8.2 billion. Ed.]
Link to | Parabolic Projection of World Conventional Oil Production.
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