One of the ways major urban centres are combatting climate change is by reducing the reliance on personal vehicles. This foundational shift to energy-efficient public transit works most effectively if the alternative is a green option. The federal government is trying to help Ontario move away from dirty diesel buses, toward electric fleets.
Currently, 92 percent of emissions in the GTHA come from transportation, buildings and industry. In all three sectors there is a need for a rapid transition to electrification. With the province’s population projected to grow from 15 million to more than 20 million by 2046, the demand to transition transportation sector energy consumption takes on a greater significance here.
But the gains are not nearly as positive if the electricity is produced using dirty technology driven by natural gas.
“Our interest is not just decarbonizing the electricity system as its individual sector, but ensuring that we do have reliable and affordable electricity that can accommodate that demand from other sectors because the decarbonisation pathways for those other sectors really relies on that availability of reliable and affordable electricity,” Aakash Harpalani, Director of Clean Energy at The Atmospheric Fund (TAF), said.
According to the Independent Electricity Systems Operator (IESO), Ontario has one of the cleanest electricity systems in the world: 91 percent of the province’s supply comes from clean sources.
But despite the federal government’s aim to help create a net zero energy grid by 2035, Ontario’s emissions are increasing, going the wrong direction under the Doug Ford PC government. Between 2020 and 2021, electricity emissions across the province have increased 28 percent, and even considering the impacts of the pandemic, the positive trend prior to Ford’s election has effectively flattened.
“Right now, frankly, we are heading in the wrong direction,” Harpalani said.
TAF commissioned a study, published last week, by Power Advisory LLC, a leading North American management consulting firm specializing in the electricity sector. The purpose was to produce an independent third party study into the viability of achieving a net zero electricity grid by 2035 in Ontario.
The study follows one by the IESO which predicted that by 2040, natural gas will make up almost a quarter of all electricity generation, resulting in an increase in emissions of 260 percent. Natural gas is the direction Ford and his PC government have decided to go in, despite the impact of methane, which is released as a result, in our atmosphere. The byproduct from the gas is widely believed by scientists to be even worse for the environment than carbon.
Ignoring the IESO’s warnings, in October, the Ford government rolled out a plan to invest in the additional generation of up to 1,500 megawatts of electricity from natural gas. This would add to the current 10,000 megawatts currently produced from natural gas.
The IESO predicted through its 2021 Annual Planning Outlook that overall energy demand will increase at an average rate of 1.7 percent per year for the next 20 years. Due in large part to the rapid transition to electrification, demand will surpass supply in 2025-2026. This corresponds with what TAF is now reporting: that demand for electricity will increase 62 percent by 2035.
“Without a limited amount of new natural gas in the near term the IESO would be reliant on emergency actions such as conservation appeals and rotating blackouts to stabilize the grid,” the IESO Resource Eligibility Interim Report explains.
The Province’s decision to ramp up the use of natural gas was claimed to be a temporary measure while moving toward decarbonization of all sectors.
The choice to expand natural gas use is not surprising; the Ford government has repeatedly cancelled clean energy projects and after taking power in 2018 eliminated the electric vehicle subsidy, crippling sales of clean vehicles. Immediately after being elected in 2018, Ford cancelled the previous government’s cap and trade system as well as a massive wind farm in Prince Edward County. The cap and trade system imposed a hard cap on greenhouse gas emissions while giving flexibility to businesses and industries to meet those targets, with the intention of gradually lowering emissions. The abandonment of the cap and trade system revealed Ford’s priority: short-term economic gain over long-term environmental protection.
Cancelling the wind farm in Prince Edward County was one of the more than 750 cuts the PC government made to renewable energy projects in its first term. Speculation circled around the wind farm project as some community members were not happy with the construction of massive wind turbines near their homes. But Ford’s decision to cancel the project was rooted in the claim that Ontario already has enough electricity to meet demand. While this was true, the supply would not be able to meet future usage. He ripped out subsidies for electric vehicles and charging stations calling them a money grab for wealthy people who drive electric cars (he had no evidence to support his claim).
Perhaps the biggest concern was the weakening of emissions reductions targets. The Climate Change Act, passed by former premier Kathleen Wynne’s Liberal government in 2016, committed Ontario to reducing emissions by 15 percent below 1990 levels by 2020, 37 percent by 2030 and 80 percent by 2050. Ford has changed the game by pegging reductions to 2005 emissions levels — which are 13 percent higher than 1990 emissions — and setting one target of a 30 percent reduction by 2030.
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