Net-zero by 2050: A dangerous illusion

This is a short (7 pages) Briefing Note written by: David Spratt & Ian Dunlop | August 2021 | National Center for Climate Restoration [Australia]

SUMMARY

• “Net zero 2050” emissions (NZ2050) is not just a goal, but a strategy for COP26 to lock in many decades of unnecessary fossil fuels use well past 2050, with an unsustainable, business-and growth-as-usual economic pathway, dangerous “offset” trade-offs, and unacceptable risks of unstoppable climate warming.

• NZ2050 scenarios being promoted by the world’s central bankers have up to 50% of primary energy use coming from fossil fuels in 2050, “offset” by use of unreliable carbon accounting and land-based measures—including bio-energy—which impinge upon and may decrease land for cropping even as demand for food increases by half over the next 30 years.  This agenda is supported by the fossil fuel industry and by “climate activist” investor groups.

• Long-term targets are an excuse for procrastination.  The short-term matters most.  Emergency action to cool and protect the most vulnerable climate and ecosystems is vital.  Failure to do so right now may make long-term targets irrelevant if cascades of system-level biophysical changes are triggered.

• At the present level of warming of 1.2°C, climate change is already dangerous, with some system-level tipping points already crossed and others dangerously close.  A return to the safe climate conditions of the Holocene requires rapid decarbonization and drawing down atmospheric carbon dioxide to more stable levels.  The policy aim must be “a big minus” in emissions, not “net zero” emissions.

• Saying NZ2050 is “the best we can do” is caving into an unsustainable and dangerous future, and giving up on protecting major Earth systems and ecologies.  The NZ2050 scenarios will not save the world’s coral reefs, nor stop rapid and devastating Arctic change nor prevent the inundation of low-lying small island states, or the triggering of societal collapse in parts of the world.

Link to | “Net zero 2050”: A dangerous illusion

Link to | National Center for Climate Restoration