Getting to 20 Million EVs by 2030

Overview

The number of electric vehicles (EVs) in the U.S. is projected to increase from 1.5 million in 2020 to 10–35 million by 2030 and will be a major disruptor to the electric power sector

• Major adoption drivers include decreasing vehicle and battery costs, expanding EV models, increasing charging infrastructure, and growing market awareness of EVs
• Favorable federal and state policies create additional incentives for purchasing EVs, including federal and state tax credits, rebates, and Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandates

Market participants throughout the industry will be involved in preparing for the transition to EVs

• Commissions are weighing the appropriate regulatory and market environments for the industry to increase EV adoption
• While most chargers to date have been installed by competitive suppliers, utilities have an important role to play by building out system infrastructure, developing EV-specific rates, and increasing customer awareness

This presentation provides an assessment of the investments needed across the electric power sector to support the deployment of 20 million EVs in the U.S. by 2030 with a focus on EV charging infrastructure

• While this analysis focuses primarily on light-duty vehicles, electrification of commercial fleets and freight trucks will further magnify electrification-related opportunities.

Key Findings

$75–125 billion of investment is needed across the electric power sector to serve 20 million EVs by 2030

• 20 million EVs will add 60–95 TWh of annual demand and 10–20 GW of peak load to the system and require 12–18 GW of renewable capacity and 1–2 million public chargers to serve EV demand
• Investments will be necessary across the supply chain, including $30–$50 billion for generation and storage, $15–$25 billion for T&D upgrades, and $30–$50 billion for EV chargers & customer-side infrastructure
• Total annual fuel savings of $12 billion/year relative to Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles translates to an estimated societal payback of 8.6 years to cover the costs of electric sector investments (7.2 years if GHG benefits are included)

Over the past 5 years, public EV chargers increased by about 40% per year, a rate that must be maintained over the next decade to install an additional 1–2 million public chargers by 2030

• To date, less than $2 billion has been approved for utilities to build out the necessary EV charging infrastructure
• While CA and NY have been leading in charger deployment, utility requests for funding in other states are rising

EVs present significant opportunity, but also uncertainty, to the electricity industry over the next decade

• Industry planners and policymakers should take a three-pronged approach to planning for significantly greater EVs, including (1) proactively developing an EV roadmap, (2) crafting an EV regulatory strategy, and (3) identifying win-win-win solutions that address market barriers

Read the full report at the source or here.