The annual emissions of greenhouse gases from the territory of Canada have been calculated and reported since 1990 in Giga tonnes of Carbon Dioxide equivalent per year (Mt CO2e/y). Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas. The heating effect of the other greenhouse gases is added to the total as the equivalent amount of carbon dioxide.
Emissions 2016-2018
Canada’s published emissions during the term of the current government, which began 2015 December 5, are presented in the graph below. That makes the starting year 2016, the first full year of the current government.
The emissions for 2019 will be added to this graph as soon as they are published, but it takes the federal government more than 12 months from the end of any given calendar year to assemble the raw data, then calculate and publish the total emissions for that calendar year. The year-over-year increases in 2017 and 2018 were 1.1% and 1.8%. To meet the Paris 2030 target, they would have needed to decline by 2% every year starting in 2015. Canada was off track by more than three percent both years, a poor record for a government that signed the Paris Accord, committing Canada to reduce its emissions of greenhouse gases by 30% between 2005 and 2030.
Three years data is not much to hang one’s hat on. But what can be said is that emissions did not decline during the first part of the term of the current government. They rose.
Context 1999-2018
For context, the record of emissions from 1990 to 2018 is presented in the graph below. The three years in the graph above are the three final years in the graph below.
The data in the second graphic were used along with other information to demonstrate Canada’s failure to hit targets (graph below). The main black line showing Canadian emissions was plotted when the data available ended at that time in 2016. In this graph, the data for 2017 and 2018 were added later as single round points, with an estimate of the emissions in 2020 based on GDP. The emissions for 2020 will not be known until the data are published in 2022.
Canada’s actual emissions vs. targets
The graph below presents the tracks (in red) that Canada would have had to follow to meet its stated targets.
Canada has not come close to meeting its commitments that have passed. It is likely to miss by an equally large margin the commitment for 2030 made in Paris in 2015 by the current federal government.
John G. Hollins
Kimberlin Associates, Ottawa
Past Chair, IEA Programme of Energy Technology Systems Analysis
Past Chair, Canadian Club of Rome
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