Published on Pairagraph. The discourse between Adam Dorr and Richard Heinberg.
Technology is not just our best hope for solving the climate crisis, it is our only hope.
Climate change is a much, much worse problem than is widely believed because it presents not one but two distinct challenges.
The mitigation challenge gets all the attention: we must achieve net zero emissions as soon as possible. The restoration challenge gets virtually none: we must withdraw hundreds of gigatons of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and oceans to repair the damage we have done over the last 250 years, or else we are completely cooked. By analogy, mitigation is about turning off the faucet and restoration is about draining the tub. We must meet both challenges by around 2050 to avoid catastrophe.
Conventional thinking around both of these challenges is dangerously flawed.
First, conventional thinking falsely assumes mitigation will take many decades. Only one of the four official IPCC climate scenarios – RCP2.6 – assumed it is even possible before 2100. In reality, solar photovoltaics alone are on track to produce more energy by 2028 than this “best-case” scenario from 2014 assumed would be possible with solar, wind, and geothermal power combined eight decades from now. Being 70 years off the mark on an 85-year timescale is not an acceptable mistake when trillions of dollars and the policymaking of our entire civilization is on the line. And it’s not just the energy sector. Our research at RethinkX shows that technology disruptions of the energy, food, and transportation sectors are economically inevitable by the mid-2030s. These three disruptions alone will directly eliminate almost 75% of all global emissions, and their indirect benefits to other sectors can eliminate or offset the remainder. Standard forecasts have gotten things spectacularly wrong by assuming linear rather than sigmoidal growth for new technologies.
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