Common sense and climate science.
Absence of weather evidence, in local regions, is not evidence of absence of global climate change.
Ralph C. Martin, Ph.D., professor (retired)
University of Guelph
Apr 6, 2025
GuelphToday received the following Letter to the Editor from reader Ralph C. Martin about climate science.
Scrambling to sort grain sheaves on a moving wagon, straw butt end out (not too far) and grain in, I realized I was getting behind. I hollered at the two men pitching from the ground, as much as a ten-year old, with dust in his mouth can, yet the onslaught continued. As I was about to go under, I nudged a few outside sheaves down. Motion stopped and the hollering, much louder, went the other direction. When there was a merciful pause, I stammered my distress. Now, 60 plus years later, I can smile about using common sense to prevent harm.
John Ralston Saul in a chapter, Common Sense, in his 2001 book, On Equilibrium, says that “common sense is shared knowledge.” Later, he postulates that “Economics has to fit into its proper place…If political leaders tell us this is no longer the case, they are really saying they don’t have the common sense energy to maintain the public good above private interests.” Referring to climate science, Ralston Saul suggests a sensible question is ‘what are the probabilities?’ Then he asks, “Why not use the sort of prudence which indicates that we are conscious and responsible enough to limit our risks?”
Recently, several friends and acquaintances made fun of the concept of global warming, given our old-fashioned Ontario winter with plenty of snow and temperatures cold enough for outdoor skating rinks to persist two months or more. Nevertheless, January 2025, averaged over the month and around the world, was the hottest January ever recorded.
It is crucial to distinguish weather from climate. Weather is local and short term, sometimes hourly or daily. In contrast, climate is assessed globally and over decades. Global carbon dioxide concentrations have increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) in 1850 to 425 ppm in 2025.
Climate science is based on sensing by numerous instruments around the world and modeling of the data. “Last year was the hottest year on record, the top 10 hottest years were all in the past decade and planet-heating carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are at an 800,000-year high.” As global temperatures rise, the movement of air and water masses are affected and “weather events are becoming more extreme; there were at least 151 unprecedented extreme weather events in 2024.”
Some local regions in southern Ontario and elsewhere, have so far been relatively unaffected by erratic weather. Absence of weather evidence, in local regions, is not evidence of absence of global climate change.
The Holocene epoch, aligned with the start of agriculture about 10,000 years ago, has shifted from benign predictability to an Anthropocene epoch [perhaps better known as the Pyrocene epoch, Ed.] of volatility and uncertainty. Nevertheless, humans march relentlessly, with large footprints, as if we must ‘get er done’ at all costs. Thomas Berry perceptively reminded us that the Earth project is primary, while the human project is derivative. Holding this awareness, we may still want just one more decade or even one more year of current comforts associated with lifestyles derived from excess greenhouse gas emissions, other pollution, extraction and waste. However, Earth’s account is already dangerously overdrawn.
Discouragingly, the wealth of the world’s billionaires grew by $2 trillion in 2024, three times faster than in 2023. Among other manipulations, they buy elections, to generate policies to consolidate their gains. In contrast, 3.6 billion people, 44% of the world’s population, live under the poverty line of $6.85 per day. The common sense solution is to buy far fewer products and services of billionaires, who disproportionately exacerbate the climate crisis. Earth and all her creatures require political leaders to implement policies to mitigate climate risks and adapt to unpredictable weather.
Ralston Saul explains that, given complexities in modern society, common sense is more about knowing than thorough understanding. For example, my three-year old grandson said gravity made him fall, when he lost his grip in the playground. His superficial understanding of gravity does not preclude his respect for it.
Climate science continues to develop and deepen our understanding with more to discover. This is not an excuse to wait. We have enough common sense to respect that earth systems are increasingly unbalanced, compelling us to urgently reduce our polluting impact.