Adapting to climate change’s effects is as important as fighting it
opinion
Charles Brindamour and Blair Feltmate
Special to The Globe and Mail
About 12 cars were stuck on the flooded Don Valley Parkway in Toronto after torrential rain caused the Don River to overflow at the Dundas Street bridge on July 16.Melissa Tait/The Globe and Mail
Charles Brindamour is chief executive of Intact Financial Corp. Blair Feltmate is head of the Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation at the University of Waterloo.
When it comes to extreme weather in Canada, saying that the worst is yet to come is not hype – it is fact.
Canada must prepare to limit the rapidly escalating costs of not only today’s extreme weather – think floods in Ontario and Quebec, wildfire in Jasper, Alta., and lethal heat in British Columbia – but also more impactful weather to come, locked in by irreversible climate change.
As a signatory to the Paris Accord, Canada committed to lowering greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net zero by 2050.
It is critical to achieve net zero. Of equal importance, Canada must protect communities and the economy from the effects of climate change that have already arrived on our doorstep. To do so, the federal government must fully fund the National Adaptation Strategy (NAS) and report annual progress in meeting its 26 targets. Net zero and NAS should be considered equally important sides of one climate-action coin.
Extreme weather hit Canada hard in 2024, setting a record of $8.1-billion in insurable claims, coupled with an additional $24-billion in uninsurable damage incurred by governments, businesses and individuals. For context, just over 10 years ago, insurable losses in Canada hovered around $700-million a year, less than one-10th of this year’s claims. These more recent effects are the tail end of a longer-term trend – 40 years ago, Canada experienced 20 natural disasters a decade, which have now grown to 138.
In 2019, the federal government warned that “Canada’s climate has warmed and will warm further in the future. … This warming is effectively irreversible.” In 2021, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change followed with: “It is indisputable that human activities are causing climate change, making extreme climate events, including heat waves, heavy rainfall, and droughts, more frequent and severe.” Similarly, in 2023, the United Nations Environment Programme stated that there is “no credible pathway to 1.5 C.”
Despite this stark forecast, there is good news on at least three fronts to counter the effects of more extreme weather than has been experienced to date.
First, we know what actions to take regarding preparedness. Over the past decade, with support from such groups as the Standards Council of Canada and the National Research Council, Canada has developed practical guidelines to protect homes and communities from flooding, wildfire and extreme heat. Without this new guidance, there would be no “adaptation tools” to mobilize action to meet NAS targets.
Second, Canada has a national adaptation road map. Ten of the 26 NAS targets have delivery dates between 2024 and 2026. The Commissioner of the Environment and Sustainable Development will report progress in meeting these targets, which should guide course correction to address deficiencies.
Third, the financial case for adaptation has solidified. Notions that adaptation may be prohibitively costly have flipped to “Canada cannot afford not to adapt.” The World Resources Institute (WRI) calculates that the return on investment for adaptation is $2-$10 in avoided losses per dollar invested per decade. Environment and Climate Change Canada recognizes that flood and wildfire standards applied to new construction save $12 for every $1 of financing. By investing half of the $12-billion Canada raises from the annual national carbon price into adaptation, a mid-range WRI calculation of return on investment is $36-billion over 10 years.
The case for the NAS is clear. What is not is the commitment of federal funding necessary to ensure its successful execution.
There are existing funding levers to pull. One key recommendation from Climate Proof Canada (representing insurers, municipalities and NGOs) is an immediate $2-billion infusion from the federal government, with $1-billion a year thereafter, to bolster Canada’s Disaster Mitigation Adaptation Fund that helps communities prepare for flooding and wildfires.
Increasing the DMAF pool can incentivize both provinces and municipalities, who own 97 per cent of Canada’s built infrastructure, to bring increased adaptation dollars to the table. Municipal governments generally have a good local understanding of actions to limit climate risks – however, as the Federation of Canadian Municipalities points out, local governments often lack resources to implement longer-term cost-saving programs.
As with any good management system, a review of federal funding to address climate change in Canada may be in order. The current balance of climate funding is tilted 96 per cent in favour of net-zero initiatives, with 4 per cent directed to adaptation. Increased funding in support of adaptation would help communities and local economies to withstand worse weather to come while Canada continues to transition to net zero.
More specifically, over the past nine years, the federal government invested $67-billion in direct funding to lower GHG emissions, with $6.6-billion applied to adaptation. Over the same period, $93-billion in tax credits supported efforts to lower GHG emissions, with virtually zero credits applied to adaptation. The ratio of federal funding directed to mitigation versus adaptation has been a lopsided 24:1, respectively. The federal government must significantly increase investment in adaptation to meet NAS targets while not diverting funds to do so from efforts to lower emissions.
Although the term “new normal” is popular to describe extreme flooding, wildfire and heat events, the weather that is yet to come will be anything but normal. To protect communities and the economy from more record-breaking catastrophic years to come, Canada must double down on preparedness. A fully funded NAS is the roadmap to get there. Every day we do not adapt is a day we do not have – in 2024, extreme weather affected three-quarters of a million Canadians.
This article was suggested by Marianne Armstrong who is Director of the National Research Council’s (NRC’s) Climate Resilient Built Environment Initiative,
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