The COP28 climate summit demonstrated both the significant progress and the limitations of what can be achieved at a United Nations climate summit with the participation of 195 countries. In the 100 hours following the summit, numerous news reports have highlighted the urgent tasks that must be addressed in the coming year.
As predicted by UN Climate Secretary Simon Stiell, there has been extensive analysis of the initiatives announced at the summit, ranging from establishing a global loss and damage fund to the commitments to triple renewable energy capacity and double energy efficiency improvements by 2030.
However, much of the commentary has focused on specific passages in the 21-page decision text that discuss transitioning away from fossil fuels and reducing consumption and production of fossil fuels in order to achieve net zero emissions by or before 2050. While these 40 words may seem insignificant in the context of United Nations legal jargon, they represent a significant achievement after almost 30 years of negotiations. This is the first time a consensus document from a UN conference has explicitly acknowledged fossil fuels as the root cause of the global climate emergency.
Nevertheless, the text falls short of calling for a phaseout or reduction of fossil fuels, which was a prominent theme throughout the conference. It includes references to expensive and questionable technologies such as carbon capture and storage, carbon dioxide removal, and small modular nuclear reactors, which do not contribute to achieving emissions reduction targets by 2030. These references mainly provide political cover for the continued expansion of oil and gas production.
The text also acknowledges the role of transitional fuels, particularly natural gas, in facilitating the energy transition while ensuring energy security. This reference was likely included to secure Russia’s approval for the final consensus text.
Despite its shortcomings and ambiguity, including fossil fuel language in the decision text is still a historic breakthrough. It sends a message to potential fossil fuel investors that governments have agreed to transition away from fossil fuels. However, this message can only be meaningful if countries take serious action to fulfill their commitments.
Unfortunately, there is little evidence to suggest that countries and companies that continue to expand fossil fuel production are genuinely committed to the goals outlined in the COP28 decisions. This highlights the main challenge that needs to be addressed in 2024.
In the immediate aftermath of COP28, there have been several developments in the oil and gas industry. The CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Sultan Al Jaber, stated that his company will continue investing in new oil and gas production, emphasizing its commitment to being a responsible supplier of low-carbon energy. ADNOC plans to spend $150 billion over the next seven years on maintaining current production. Similar announcements have been made by other oil and gas companies and industry organizations.
In addition, there have been reports of increased investment in Norway’s oil and gas industry, predictions of healthy growth in global oil demand by OPEC, major oil companies investing in oil development in Brazil, and various other activities related to oil and gas production worldwide.
These developments contradict the goals and commitments set forth in the COP28 decisions. While some analysts argue that the transition language in the decision text is a significant step towards phasing out fossil fuels, others point out that the rejection of language calling for a phaseout was primarily driven by objections from oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia.
US climate envoy John Kerry acknowledges that there may be loopholes in the text allowing countries to continue selling crude oil in the short term. However, he emphasizes that all countries will eventually have to transition away from fossil fuels.
Furthermore, there have been recent developments related to natural gas. Alberta is expected to increase its gas-fired electricity production in 2024 despite imposing a moratorium on new renewable energy projects. Additionally, reports suggest that the Biden administration may approve a massive liquefied natural gas export project in Louisiana, which would significantly contribute to climate-warming pollution.
These ongoing activities in the oil and gas industry underscore the urgent need for adequate funding and financial system reform to address all aspects of the climate emergency. Developing countries have called for support in implementing emission reduction and energy transition projects, adapting to climate change impacts, and receiving compensation for loss and damage. The impacts of climate change continue to devastate communities around the world, with recent floods in Kenya causing loss of life and destruction attributed to climate change.
In conclusion, while COP28 marked a significant milestone with regard to acknowledging fossil fuels as a vital driver of the climate emergency, there is still much work to be done to ensure that countries and companies align their actions with their commitments.
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