1995 Series 1 Number 14 Page 14
[Part One set out the background for this analysis. Ed.]
This was Part Two of an essay, subtitled More Turbulence on the Horizon.
CACOR member Dr. Norbert Gass discussed the instability in the Caucasus region during the 1990s. The region was plagues by wars at the time and in subsequent decades.
Dr. Gass used “fuzzy combinatories” to track the multitude of problems in the Caucasus region to forecast regional stability.
He saw that the region was destabilizing. Small ethnic groups were pitted against one another, with intractable and contradictory claims abounding. He foresaw conflict for years (at least five) to come, and felt peace could only come with ethnic separation.
Link to | Will There Ever Be Peace in the Caucasus? (Part Two)
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