Ignoring the IESO’s warnings, in October, the Ford government rolled out a plan to invest in the additional generation of up to 1,500 megawatts of electricity from natural gas. This would add to the current 10,000 megawatts currently produced from natural gas.
The IESO predicted through its 2021 Annual Planning Outlook that overall energy demand will increase at an average rate of 1.7 percent per year for the next 20 years. Due in large part to the rapid transition to electrification, demand will surpass supply in 2025-2026. This corresponds with what TAF is now reporting: that demand for electricity will increase 62 percent by 2035.
“Without a limited amount of new natural gas in the near term the IESO would be reliant on emergency actions such as conservation appeals and rotating blackouts to stabilize the grid,” the IESO Resource Eligibility Interim Report explains.
The Province’s decision to ramp up the use of natural gas was claimed to be a temporary measure while moving toward decarbonization of all sectors.
The choice to expand natural gas use is not surprising; the Ford government has repeatedly cancelled clean energy projects and after taking power in 2018 eliminated the electric vehicle subsidy, crippling sales of clean vehicles. Immediately after being elected in 2018, Ford cancelled the previous government’s cap and trade system as well as a massive wind farm in Prince Edward County. The cap and trade system imposed a hard cap on greenhouse gas emissions while giving flexibility to businesses and industries to meet those targets, with the intention of gradually lowering emissions. The abandonment of the cap and trade system revealed Ford’s priority: short-term economic gain over long-term environmental protection.